November 29, 2024
BTC and crypto are trading higher on subdued volumes. US spot BTC ETFs have seen combined inflows of USD 6.2B in November, the second best month following February.
Story of the day
Two Years Ago, The European Central Bank (ECB) published a paper titled ‘Bitcoin’s Last Stand’ - It Remains To Be Seen What Kind Of Effect Donald Trump’s Incoming Pro-Crypto Administration Will Have On The EU’s Position. The ECB’s paper was published on November 30, 2022, 19 days following FTX filing for bankruptcy. That month, BTC’s price fell to as low as USD ~16,000. The paper described BTC’s performance in 2022 as ‘an artificially induced last gasp before the road to irrelevance,’ something that was ‘foreseeable before FTX went bust and sent the bitcoin price to well below USD 16,000.’ The paper then goes on to make several highly misleading claims: ‘Bitcoin is rarely used for legal transactions,’ ‘Regulation can be misunderstood as approval,’ and that ‘Promoting Bitcoin bears a reputational risk for banks.’ In 2024, however, these claims are significantly more difficult to defend than in 2024. For instance, the claim that the majority of BTC is ‘rarely used for legal transactions’ is difficult to substantiate when US spot ETFs hold 1.08M BTC, ~5% of the tokens currently in existence. The least controversial of the ECB’s points, that ‘regulation can be misunderstood as approval,’ appears moot in 2024 given the extent to which the Trump election campaign has endorsed BTC and crypto from a fundamental perspective. The ECB has published papers critical of crypto in the past. For example, the central bank warned in 2022 that ‘[s]ystemic risk increases in line with the level of interconnectedness between crypto-assets and the traditional financial sector.’ Last year, long-time crypto critic and ECB President Christine Lagarde said her son ignored her warnings on digital assets and ‘lost almost all the money that he had invested.’ This week, Tether’s decision to ‘discontinue for EUR₮,’ the firm’s Euro-denominated stablecoin, has highlighted the bloc’s approach to crypto and its new ‘European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets’ (MiCA) regulations. In its announcement of the move, Tether wrote that until ‘a more risk-averse framework is in place—one that fosters innovation and offers the stability and protection our users deserve—we have chosen to prioritize other initiatives.’ Coinbase announced this week that it will cease its USDC Rewards program for customers in the European Economic Area starting December 1, citing MiCA. Takeaway: Donald Trump’s election has spurred discussion on multitudes of possible international knock-on effects - yesterday we described speculation in the crypto space that other nations are incentivized to ‘front run’ a US BTC reserve. For the EU, it remains to be seen what kind of effects Trump’s strong support for the crypto industry will have on domestic positions. Stablecoins, for instance, now have significant bipartisan political support in the US as a vehicle for facilitating demand for US treasuries. This support could see the US exert influence over certain stablecoin provision in the EU. For crypto proponents, the hope is that jurisdictions that have been staunchly anti-crypto, will find it hard to maintain this position if the US’ embrace continues moving forward.
Crypto Headlines
• The Bern Canton parliament in Switzerland passed a motion to conduct a review of BTC mining despite executive opposition. The report, supported by a 23-member Parliamentary Group, will explore energy sources and collaboration with miners to potentially stabilize the grid. - [link](https://cointelegraph.com/news/swiss-bern-bitcoin-mining-report) - @Cointelegraph
• Northern Data AG (ETR: NB2) is in advanced talks to sell its crypto mining division. The firm plans to pivot its business to focus solely on AI offerings, with the deal expected to range between USD 300-500M. - [link](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/tether-backed-northern-data-gets-offers-for-crypto-mining-arm) - @Bloomberg
• SecondLane sold a 1% equity stake in the memecoin protocol Solana-based memecoin platform pump.fun for USD 15M, giving the project a valuation at USD 1.5B. - [link](https://cointelegraph.com/news/swiss-bern-bitcoin-mining-report) - @Cointelegraph
• Metaplanet Inc. (TYO: 3350) announced a capital raise of up to USD 62M to expand its BTC investments. - [link](https://cointelegraph.com/news/metaplanet-raise-62-million-buy-bitcoin) - @Cointelegraph
Top Articles
• Bloomberg: [Crypto’s $1 Trillion Rally Has Yet To Reprise Pandemic-Era Mania](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-27/bitcoin-btc-bounces-off-lows-rekindles-100-000-milestone-optimism)
• Barron's: [Bitcoin Heads Back Toward $100,000. It’s Lifting MicroStrategy With It, Too.](https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-price-record-microstrategy-stock-184c1abc)
Open-Source Research / Long Read of the Day
• [US Bitcoin ETFs Head For Record Monthly Inflow On Trump Optimism](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-29/us-bitcoin-btc-etfs-head-for-record-monthly-inflow-on-trump-optimism) - Bloomberg, November 28, 2024
• Bloomberg reviews the performance of spot BTC ETFs in November.
Crypto multimedia
• [Josh Lim On How Trump’s Election Is Opening The Door For Institutional Crypto Adoption](https://www.theblock.co/post/328720/josh-lim-on-how-trumps-election-is-opening-the-door-for-institutional-crypto-adoption) - The Scoop Podcast, November 29, 2024
• Joshua Lim, the co-founder of Arbelos Markets, discusses how the election of Trump will impact institutional crypto adoption.
Chart of the day
Chart of the Day: Attention being afforded to BTC's performance, measured via Google searches, remains well below its 2021 peak.